The future of fossil fuels in Poland and Europe

The green transition is a process that redefines the way countries around the world manage their energy resources. For companies across many sectors of the economy, it will be important to adapt to changes taking place in the economy and industry, particularly in the context of gradually moving away from high-emission energy sources. Fossil fuels, which for decades formed the foundation of the global economy, are gradually losing their importance, and their future is becoming the subject of broad discussion.

The use of fuels such as coal, crude oil and natural gas has enabled the development of heavy industry, urbanization, and the construction of modern energy infrastructure. In Poland, coal, both hard and lignite, plays a key role in the energy mix, accounting for about 70% of electricity generation. Compared to Western European countries, Poland relies much less on renewable energy sources (RES). Although the share of wind, solar and biomass energy is increasing, it still remains at an insufficient level to balance the dominance of fossil fuels.

The decision to maintain investments in fossil fuels is a choice that must be considered in a broad context. On the one hand, it means continuing the current model, which provides short-term stability but is associated with high emissions. Maintaining coal mining is also linked to the need to support the Polish mining sector with significant amounts of public aid. On the other hand, investing in future technologies such as RES, green hydrogen, or energy storage is a long-term profitable strategy but requires the development and modernization of energy infrastructure.

It is worth noting that countries that consistently pursue a decarbonization strategy can benefit from financial support through EU funds such as the Just Transition Fund or resources from the FEnIKS program (European Funds for Infrastructure, Climate and Environment). Poland has the opportunity to take advantage of these funds, but it requires a clear vision and consistency in achieving climate goals.

In Polish industry, coal remains the primary fuel in the power sector and the heating sector. In the face of EU requirements such as the Green Deal and rising CO₂ emission costs, industry is faced with the necessity of transforming its energy model.

The energy transition in Europe is primarily about the consistent pursuit of climate neutrality. In the coming years, the following changes can be expected:

• Decline in the role of coal

The global trend of moving away from fossil fuels means that countries investing in RES technologies and energy efficiency will gain greater economic competitiveness. Continuing investments in coal and gas may weaken Poland's position in international markets.

• Growing importance of natural gas as a transitional fuel

Although natural gas is still emission-generating, it is less harmful to the environment than coal. Its role will remain significant in the coming decades until nuclear, hydrogen, and energy storage technologies reach full deployment.

• CCS and CCU technologies

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) and carbon capture and utilization (CCU) can allow for continued, though limited, use of fossil fuels in a more sustainable way.

• Development of RES and nuclear power

Poland is investing in wind, solar, and biomass energy, and nuclear power – small modular reactors (SMRs) – is gaining popularity. Accelerating the construction of RES installations and modernizing the power infrastructure is essential to reduce dependence on fossil fuels.

Improvement of air quality

Reducing the combustion of fossil fuels, especially coal, will significantly reduce pollutant emissions into the atmosphere. As a result, the scale of smog, which particularly affects Polish cities and industrial regions, will be reduced. Improving air quality will have a direct impact on citizens' health and help slow climate change. According to a report by the Climate Central research group, climate change most affects Germany, Poland, the Czech Republic, and Belgium. According to researchers, winter in Poland has shortened by about three weeks compared to winters 10 years ago, and we are experiencing the fastest increase in the number of winter days with above-freezing temperatures.

Reduced dependence on energy imports

An energy transition based on RES will allow countries like Poland to reduce dependence on imports of energy commodities such as crude oil or natural gas. Increasing the share of locally produced energy will enhance the country's energy security and make the economy independent of price fluctuations in global commodity markets.

New development opportunities

Moving away from fossil fuels opens the door to technological innovation and the development of new economic sectors. Expanding renewable energy sources, developing green hydrogen, or investing in energy storage technologies will contribute to job creation in other sectors of the economy. This transition can also attract investors interested in operating in the field of green technologies. Additionally, the need to modernize and adapt the grid to renewable energy sources will result in a modern and less overloaded energy infrastructure.

Socio-economic costs

Phasing out fossil fuels involves high social costs, especially in mining-based regions such as Silesia. The loss of jobs in the mining sector requires support for local communities and the implementation of worker retraining programs. The transition also requires adequate financial support to ensure that this process is fair and sustainable.

Technical challenges of RES integration

Increasing the share of renewable energy sources in the energy mix brings challenges related to the instability of their production. Solar and wind energy depend on weather conditions, making it difficult to maintain supply continuity. In addition, Polish power grids require modernization to handle the rapid increase in RES production and ensure system stability. The development of energy storage technologies and smart grids is key but requires time and significant investment.

Global competition

Europe, as a leader in the energy transition, faces challenges related to global competition. Countries that reduce emissions to a lesser extent and continue to use cheap fossil fuels may gain a cost advantage in international markets. This requires the European Union to take measures to protect its enterprises from competition outside the EU, for example by introducing mechanisms such as the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM).

Competitiveness is not the only issue facing the European economy in relation to coal – the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) published a report in August 2024 showing that Europe is warming twice as fast as other continents. This is partly due to changes in atmospheric circulation. Climate warming is also influenced by high population density, poorly designed urban spaces, and the continued use of fossil fuels.

Each of these aspects shows that the energy transition brings significant challenges but also benefits that require a comprehensive approach and cooperation at the local, national, and international levels. Although Europe is a leader in the green transition and for yet another year produces more energy from RES than from fossil fuels, change must happen faster.

The direction of change is clear – the future belongs to sustainable energy. Countries that take bold action today will gain a competitive advantage in the future, becoming leaders in the fight for climate neutrality and examples for the rest of the world. Poland has the chance to join this group, but it requires a decisive step forward and the rejection of outdated fossil fuel-based models.