The future of fossil fuels in Poland and Europe

The green transformation is a process that redefines how countries around the world manage their energy resources. For companies in many sectors of the economy, adapting to changes in the economy and industry will be essential, especially in the context of the gradual shift away from emission-intensive energy sources. Fossil fuels, which for decades were the foundation of the global economy, are gradually losing importance, and their future has become the subject of broad discussion.

The importance of fossil fuels in the economy and industry

The use of fuels such as coal, crude oil, and natural gas has enabled the development of heavy industry, urbanization, and the construction of modern energy infrastructure. In Poland, both hard and brown coal play a key role in the energy mix, accounting for about 70% of electricity production. Compared to Western European countries, Poland uses renewable energy sources (RES) to a much lesser extent. Although the share of energy from wind, solar, and biomass is growing, it remains insufficient to balance the dominance of fossil fuels.

The decision to maintain investments in fossil fuels should be considered in a broad context. On the one hand, it means continuing the current model, which provides short-term stability but is associated with high emissions. Maintaining coal mining also requires significant public financial support for the Polish mining sector. On the other hand, investing in future technologies, such as renewable energy sources, green hydrogen, or energy storage, is a profitable long-term strategy but requires the development and modernization of energy infrastructure.

It is worth noting that countries that consistently implement a decarbonization strategy can count on financial support from EU funds, such as the Just Transition Fund or the FEnIKS program (European Funds for Infrastructure, Climate, and Environment). Poland has the opportunity to benefit from these funds, but this requires a clear vision and consistency in achieving climate goals.

In Polish industry, coal remains the primary fuel for power generation and heating. However, due to EU requirements, such as the Green Deal and rising CO₂ emission costs, the industry must transform its energy model.

The future of fossil fuels in Poland and Europe

The energy transformation in Europe is primarily driven by a consistent pursuit of climate neutrality. The following changes can be expected in the coming years:

• Reducing the role of coal

The global trend of moving away from fossil fuels means that countries investing in renewable energy technologies and energy efficiency will achieve greater economic competitiveness. Continuing investments in coal and gas may weaken Poland's position in international markets.

• Growing importance of natural gas as a transition fuel

Although it emits CO₂, natural gas is less harmful to the environment than coal. Its role will be significant in the coming decades before nuclear, hydrogen, and energy storage technologies reach full-scale implementation.

• CCS and CCU technologies

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) and carbon capture and utilization (CCU) may allow for continued, albeit limited, use of fossil fuels in a more sustainable manner.

• Development of renewable and nuclear energy

Poland is investing in wind, solar, and biomass energy, while nuclear energy—particularly small modular reactors (SMRs)—is gaining popularity. Accelerating the construction of renewable energy installations and modernizing power infrastructure is necessary to reduce dependence on fossil fuels.

Consequences of abandoning fossil fuels

Improving air quality

Reducing the combustion of fossil fuels, especially coal, will significantly decrease atmospheric pollutant emissions. As a result, the scale of the smog phenomenon, which particularly affects Polish cities and industrial regions, will be reduced. Improving air quality will have a direct impact on public health and slow down climate change. According to a report by the Climate Central research group, climate change has the greatest impact on Germany, Poland, the Czech Republic, and Belgium. Researchers indicate that winter in Poland has shortened by about three weeks compared to winters a decade ago, while the number of winter days with positive temperatures is increasing at the fastest rate.

Reducing dependence on energy imports

An energy transformation based on renewable energy sources will allow countries such as Poland to reduce their dependence on imported energy resources like oil and natural gas. Increasing the share of locally produced energy will enhance national energy security and shield the economy from price fluctuations in global commodity markets.

New development opportunities

Moving away from fossil fuels opens the door to technological innovation and the development of new economic sectors. The expansion of renewable energy sources, the development of green hydrogen, and investments in energy storage technologies will create jobs in emerging industries. This transformation may also attract investors interested in green technologies. Additionally, the need to modernize and adapt the grid to accommodate renewable energy will result in a more advanced and less congested energy infrastructure.

Socio-economic costs

Abandoning fossil fuels comes with significant social costs, particularly in mining-dependent regions such as Silesia. The elimination of jobs in the mining sector necessitates support for local communities and the implementation of retraining programs for workers. The transformation also requires adequate financial backing to ensure a fair and sustainable transition.

Technical challenges of RES Integration

The increasing share of renewable energy sources in the energy mix poses challenges related to the variability of their production. Solar and wind energy depend on weather conditions, making it difficult to maintain a stable energy supply. Additionally, Poland’s electricity networks require modernization to accommodate the rapid increase in RES production and ensure system stability. The development of energy storage technologies and smart grids is crucial, but it demands time and significant investment.

Global competition

Europe, as a leader in the energy transition, faces challenges related to global competition. Countries that reduce emissions to a lesser extent and continue using cheap fossil fuels may gain a cost advantage in international markets. This situation requires the European Union to take measures to protect its industries from external competition, for example, by implementing mechanisms such as the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM).

Competitiveness is not the only challenge facing the European economy concerning coal. In August 2024, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) published a report indicating that Europe is warming twice as fast as other continents, partly due to changes in atmospheric circulation. Factors such as high population density, poorly designed urban spaces, and the use of fossil fuels also contribute to climate warming. 
Each of these aspects demonstrates that the energy transition presents significant challenges but also brings benefits that require a comprehensive approach and collaboration at local, national, and international levels. Although Europe has been generating more energy from renewable sources than from fossil fuels for another consecutive year, the pace of change must accelerate.

“The future of fossil fuels in Poland and Europe depends on bold decisions and the consistent implementation of decarbonization strategies. The challenges of the energy transition are significant, but the opportunities opened by the shift to clean energy have the potential to transform economies on an unprecedented scale. Investing in energy efficiency, renewable energy sources, or SMRs is not only a way to reduce emissions but also a path to greater energy independence, improved quality of life, and the development of an innovative economy. At DB Energy, we demonstrate every day that decarbonization can be implemented in a way that pays off.” says Dr. Dominik Brach, Member of the Management Board and co-founder of DB Energy.

The direction of change is clear—the future belongs to sustainable energy. Countries that take bold action today will gain a competitive advantage in the future, becoming leaders in the pursuit of climate neutrality and role models for the rest of the world. Poland has the opportunity to join this group, but doing so requires decisive action and the rejection of outdated energy models based on fossil fuels.